نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت راهبردی، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)
2 دانشجوی دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت راهبردی، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران
3 استادگروه آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The contemporary world is facing rapid changes, filled with instability, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, and these transformations create great surprises over time. In such conditions, strategic understanding and timely engagement with realities provide the potential for creating opportunities, while neglect and passivity lead to facing various threats. One of the ways to address this is through futures studies and the domain of watching. Conventional watching has limitations, and failing to address them can lead to threats. Artificial intelligence, as one of the most influential emerging technologies in the world, is a driving force for extensive changes across various fields, including the watching domain. This research focuses on the capabilities of artificial intelligence and considers its limitations, examining how to enhance watching. The study is applied and qualitative in nature, initially gathering data through literature review and library research. Then, to finalize and prioritize the limitations of conventional watching, the Delphi method was applied in two phases. Finally, using the collective opinions of experts in a panel, the "Rohrbeck" model was selected as the base model, and the results were completed and confirmed. An enhanced model, integrating artificial intelligence, was proposed. The time scope of the research is 10 years, and the spatial scope focuses on the domain of futures studies in Iran.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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