نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت راهبردی، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)
2 دانشجوی دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت راهبردی، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران
3 استادگروه آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The current world is facing rapid changes, full of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, and these developments create great surprises over time. In this condition strategic and timely understanding of realities and active action creates the ability to use opportunities, and neglecting and passivity action lead to various threats,in this regard one of the ways, is to use futures studies and watching.Conventional watching has limitations and will be threatened ,in the case of lack of attention. Artificial intelligence, as one of the most effective emerging technologies in the world, has become the driver of broad changes in various fields and watching field as well. In this research, we focus on AI based watching considering capabilities and limitations of AI.This research is applied type with a qualitative approach.at the beginning, with literature review and desk research, primary information has been collected.Then, using the purposeful sampling method, 15 experts in Futures studies and AI were selected.This research was carried out using the Delphi method in two stages for finalizaing and evaluating watching limitations, and at the end, holding expert panel to select base model, validate result and issue proposed model. The time horizon of the research was selected in a 10-year, and in terms of the location, the futures studies departments and Iranian organizations and researchers were considered. According to functions of artificial intelligence in watching, an improved Rohrbeck model has been proposed by integration of conventional watching with AI.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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