نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری آیندهپژوهی دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)
2 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The influence and social base of the clergy is one of the topics that has always been discussed. Therefore, through historical events, thinkers have debated about the role and influence of the clergy in its realization. This paper, unlike other researches that investigate the influence of the clergy in a past event, examines the issue with a view to the future and aims to examine the influence and social base of the clergy in the future. In order to solve this problem, in the first step by reviewing the literature, drivers affecting the topic were identified and important drivers were introduced after seven Delphi method steps. In the next step, the key drivers were identified with the method of cross-impact analysis and using the Mic Mac software. Finally, using scenario wizard software, the scenarios ahead of the subject were examined. By examining the opinions of experts, 6 key drivers were identified out of 15 important and influential drivers, and by using the opinions of experts, four possible scenarios were designed, which are one favorable scenario, one disaster scenario, and two intermediate scenarios. Among the stated scenarios, the most likely scenario is the spiritual scenario, which can be made more prominent in the society with the changes in educational, educational and social policies that were mentioned in the policies section.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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