نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد روابط بینالملل، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه گیلان، تهران، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)
2 دکتری آیندهپژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت راهبردی، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
In the present study, while analyzing the threats posed by the actions of the US & China in the Indo Pacific area, the future of the effects of competition on Iran's interests & analyzed using the scenario writing method. the leading research is based on the obtained results, of an applied type, & considering that during it to answer the main question of the research, namely how the future threat of Sino-US approaches in the Indo Pacific region to Iran's interests, developed one of a variety of methods. The quality of the script, called GBN, is developmental. In addition, the present study is descriptive in nature & is descriptive of the current context of the conflict & the factors that shape the current & future threats of US - China relations. Attempts have also been made to extract key scenarios & drivers affecting the mentioned relationships through interviews with experts & focus groups, & according to the key uncertainties extracted from the distribution questionnaires among 25 scientific & diplomatic experts, four scenarios have been identified. : 1) Worst: Ensuring China's energy security; 2) The best: the occurrence of economic & trade war between China & the United States; 3) Continuation of current trends: no trade & economic war between China & the United States; 4) China's inability to ensure energy security, which in accordance with the scenarios & in detail, in addition to the indicators of the occurrence of scenarios, strategic recommendations, policies & strategies to manage each are presented.
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