نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات خاورمیانه، گروه مطالعات منطقهای، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Security developments over recent decades indicate that the nature of threats facing states has shifted from predominantly conventional and military patterns toward soft, cognitive, and perceptual forms of threat. In this context, the Islamic Republic of Iran, owing to its geopolitical position, regional and extraregional rivalries, and confrontation with hostile actors, has become increasingly exposed to narrative warfare, cognitive operations, and perceptual pressure. Drawing on a futures studies approach and scenario planning methodology, this study analyzes plausible futures of soft and cognitive threats and their implications and risks for national security, particularly for the functioning of the country’s defense institutions. To this end, the study first examines the theoretical foundations of soft threats, cognitive threats, and hybrid warfare, and subsequently identifies and analyzes relevant actors and political–geopolitical, technological, social, and economic drivers. The findings indicate that soft and cognitive threats may generate profound strategic, operational, and social consequences, including the erosion of the accuracy of strategic assessments, disruption of decision-making, decline in defense-related social capital, and an increased likelihood of adversarial miscalculation. Based on these analyses, four overarching scenarios are developed for the next five to ten years, ranging from the escalation of full-scale cognitive warfare to the desirable scenario of “Cognitive Resilience and Active Management.” The findings underscore the need to formulate a cognitive defense doctrine and strengthen institutional capacities for the proactive management of such threats.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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