نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دکتری روابط بینالملل، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Rapid technological developments and intensifying strategic competition among major powers have transformed the defense industry into one of the principal centers for generating and sustaining military power in the international system. In this context, defense industry foresight has assumed an increasingly important role as a key mechanism for the early identification of technological trends, the management of uncertainty, and the direction of industrial and strategic decision-making. Nevertheless, the existing literature has paid limited attention to systematic and comparative examinations of defense industry foresight models employed by major powers. To address this gap, this study comparatively analyzes the defense industry foresight models of the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The study adopts a qualitative research design based on the analysis of official defense documents and reports, think-tank studies, and academic sources. The analytical framework is structured around three main dimensions: institutional structures and actors, the scope of foresight activities, and implementation mechanisms and tools. The findings indicate that the United States employs a networked, decentralized, and innovation-driven foresight model that relies extensively on the participation of the private sector, universities, and major defense companies. China, by contrast, follows a centralized, state-driven, and integrated model in which industrial foresight constitutes part of the state’s strategic architecture and is closely linked to the integration of the military and civilian sectors. The findings further demonstrate that the institutional and technological differences between these two models have significant implications for defense innovation, supply chain resilience, and long-term competitive capabilities. By providing a comparative assessment of defense industry foresight in the United States and China, this study offers an analytical basis for defense policymaking in other countries.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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