نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دکتری آیندهپژوهی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
This study aims to systematically analyze the key trends shaping the future of warfare toward 2040. The theoretical framework is grounded in the “Transformation of the Nature of War” theory proposed by Venkrefeld, which elucidates fundamental changes in the form, logic, actors, and instruments of warfare, from the classical state-centric model toward networked and multi-level conflicts. The study adopts a documentary research design and content analysis of strategic texts, conducted through the stages of identification, collection, content analysis, and interpretation of relevant documents. The findings indicate that future warfare is evolving from an “event” into a continuous, multilayered “process.” Five structural drivers underpinning this transformation are identified: (1) the development of artificial intelligence and autonomy in command and control; (2) the expansion of cognitive warfare and perception engineering; (3) the convergence of biological and digital domains and the emergence of body–data-based threats; (4) the privatization of warfare and the emergence of new non-state actors; and (5) the erosion of traditional boundaries between deterrence and offensive operations. These trends signify not merely changes in the instruments of warfare, but a fundamental transformation in the logic of power, the domains of conflict, and the very perception of threat. Understanding these transformations constitutes an essential first step toward strategic rethinking and the design of resilient security architectures in an era of growing instability.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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