نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
کارشناسی ارشد علوم سیاسی، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
West Asia, characterized by complex security interactions and persistent conflicts of interest among regional and extra-regional actors, has long been prone to military conflict. In this context, the intensification of the strategic confrontation between Iran and the Zionist regime, together with the recent conflict, the absence of a legal peace settlement, and the persistence of fundamental conflicts of interest, has made the prospect of a lasting end to the war uncertain and has highlighted the need to study the future of this conflict in order to enhance anticipatory awareness and deterrence. This article aims to systematically analyze various future scenarios of the conflict between Iran and the Zionist regime within a long-term, five-year horizon. Given the increasing complexity of regional developments, the study employs scenario development to identify key drivers, influential actors, and wild-card events and, by delineating alternative futures, explains the causal chain leading to each scenario. Accordingly, eight key actors—Iran, the Zionist regime, the United States, Russia, China, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Europe—were identified, and their strengths and weaknesses, action options, and preferred futures were analyzed. The uncertainties were then identified, and their likelihood of occurrence and impact were scored across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. Subsequently, the key items in each of these three timeframes were identified, and a scenario tree was developed. Based on the incremental scenario development method, the baseline scenario was selected on the basis of the “continuation of active deterrence and the non-occurrence of conflict within the studied timeframe.” Consequently, developments such as elections, changes of government, the acquisition of advanced weapons and military capabilities, or changes in the status of Iran’s nuclear dossier may lead to scenarios involving either limited or severe conflict.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)