نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دکتری مدیریت دفاعی راهبردی ، دانشکده دفاع، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The negotiations between Iran and the United States in the current geopolitical context of the region and the international system are influenced by multiple variables, including the U.S. power structure, the economic needs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the security concerns of the Zionist regime, and China’s economic and geopolitical interests. The outcomes and consequences of these negotiations are highly significant for the interests of regional and global actors. Using scenario planning based on the importance–uncertainty matrix, this study sought to answer the main research question: “What scenarios lie ahead for the negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States?” This was an applied-developmental study using a mixed-methods approach and a descriptive-analytical method. Data were collected through library research and field methods, including interviews and questionnaires. The qualitative data were analyzed using content analysis, while the quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS. The questionnaire’s validity was assessed using content validity, and its reliability was evaluated using Cronbach’s alpha. Ultimately, environmental analysis and the identification of active and influential actors led to the identification of nine key variables. By determining the degree of influence (importance) and the level of uncertainty of each variable, four scenarios—Bitter Agreement, Strategic Compromise, Crisis Escalation, and Stalling Game—were identified. Finally, the study presented the drivers, consequences, stakeholders, and strategic options for the Islamic Republic of Iran.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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