نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد علوم سیاسی، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار و عضو هئیت علمی پژوهشگاه علوم و معارف دفاع مقدس سپهبد پاسدار شهید سلیمانی
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study aims to assess the impact of the recent military conflict between Iran and the Zionist regime on the balance of power in the West Asia region. Relying on the theory of the "Regional Security Complex" and employing the futures studies method of scenario Development, the regional security structure, based on a "balance of power" among the four main actors (Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Zionist regime), is first explained. Then, by considering two key factors—"security relations among regional powers" and the "level of involvement by extra-regional actors"—six probable futures for the regional order, including "controlled competition," "erosion of security," "comprehensive conflict," "widespread destruction," "strategic isolation," and "asymmetric alliances," are mapped and analyzed. The findings indicate that while the 12-day conflict did not create a fundamental change in the balance of power structure, by intensifying instability and diminishing the supervisory role of major powers, it has laid the groundwork for a shift from the current conditions towards one of the alternative scenarios. Consequently, active diplomatic management and a review of security strategies appear necessary to guide the region's future developments towards more stable situations.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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