نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار و عضو هئیت علمی پژوهشگاه علوم و معارف دفاع مقدس سپهبد پاسدار شهید سلیمانی
2 کارشناسی ارشد علوم سیاسی، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study aims to assess the impact of the recent military conflict between Iran and the Zionist regime on the balance of power in West Asia. Drawing on Regional Security Complex Theory and using scenario development, the study first explains the regional security structure based on a “balance of power” among four main actors: Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Zionist regime. It then considers two key factors—“security relations among regional powers” and the “level of involvement of extra-regional actors”—and develops and analyzes six probable scenarios for the future of the regional order: “Controlled Competition,” “Erosive Insecurity,” “Widespread Conflict,” “Widespread Destruction,” “Strategic Isolation,” and “Heterogeneous Alliances.” The findings indicate that although the 12-Day War did not fundamentally alter the structure of the balance of power, it intensified instability and reduced the supervisory role of major powers, thereby creating the conditions for a shift from the current situation toward one of the alternative scenarios. Consequently, proactive diplomatic management and a reassessment of security strategies appear necessary to steer future regional developments toward more stable conditions.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)