نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشجوی دکتری آیندهپژوهی، دانشکده معارف اسلامی و مدیریت، دانشگاه امام صادق (علیهالسلام)، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
This article presents a systematic review of scenario planning in reputable journals, Futures and Foresight. The main objective of the research is to analyze articles that have used scenario planning as a research method, aiming to answer questions such as the fields of application, prominent authors, their nationalities, supporting academic institutions, and the type and number of scenarios in these studies. This study employs a systematic review approach and examines articles published from 1969 to 2024. To maximize the identification of relevant articles, keywords such as "Scenario," "Futures studies," and "Foresight" were used. In this process, 3,565 articles were initially identified, and after several screening stages, the number of articles was reduced to 875. The findings showed that the highest number of articles were published in 2010 and 2011, with prominent contributors like Sohail Inayatullah and Thomas Chermack being the most active. Authors from the United States and the United Kingdom are at the top, while Iran, with 25 published articles, ranks twelfth. The majority of articles are focused on the fields of management and economics (30%) and environment and urban management (20%). Additionally, 65% of the articles were authored by research teams. Most of the articles dealt with exploratory scenarios and quantitative approaches, often presenting two to four scenarios. This paper highlights the importance of scenario planning as a tool for analyzing the future and making informed decisions in various fields.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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