نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشجوی دکتری آیندهپژوهی، دانشکده معارف اسلامی و مدیریت، دانشگاه امام صادق(علیهالسلام)، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
This article provides a systematic review of scenario development in the reputable journals Futures and Foresight. The primary goal of the research is to analyze articles that utilize scenario development as a research method, addressing questions such as areas of application, prominent authors, their nationalities, supporting academic institutions, and the type and number of scenarios in these studies. The study employs a systematic review approach, examining articles published from 1969 to 2024. To maximize the identification of relevant articles, keywords such as "Scenario," "Futures Studies," and "Foresight" were used. Initially, 3,565 articles were identified, and after multiple stages of screening, the number was narrowed down to 875 articles. The findings indicate that the highest number of articles were published in 2010 and 2011. Prominent contributors include Sohail Inayatullah and Thomas Chermack. Authors from the United States and the United Kingdom lead in publications, while Iran ranks 12th with 25 published articles. Most articles focus on the fields of management and economics (30%) and environment and urban management (20%). Additionally, 65% of the articles were authored by research teams. The majority of studies employed exploratory scenarios and quantitative approaches, typically presenting two to four scenarios. This article underscores the importance of scenario development as a tool for analyzing the future and making informed decisions across various fields.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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