نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشجوی دکتری آیندهپژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت راهبردی، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Foresight is one of the most effective tools for navigating the waves of uncertainty, and selecting the appropriate method is among the most critical factors for its success. One way to achieve better results in foresight projects is to have a clear understanding of various methods and their applications in previous projects. Since the 1990s, numerous methods have been introduced and applied at different levels for foresight projects. However, many of these methods have either failed or faced significant challenges and shortcomings, and due to the dynamic nature of foresight, no standardized process for utilizing them is available. Undoubtedly, backcasting is one of the most effective methods in foresight, especially for shaping desired long-term futures, and it falls under the category of scenario approaches. Officially introduced in the early 1970s, this method has recently found its way into the realm of sustainable development. This research aims to define, explore the components and structure of the backcasting method, and provide a comprehensive synthesis of past research findings to create a clear picture of its application and enhance the understanding of its use in various foresight topics. To this end, a systematic review was conducted on published articles available in online databases such as ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Emerald. Following a rigorous screening process, nearly 20 articles were selected for in-depth study and analysis.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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