نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم پایه، دانشگاه افسری امام علی علیه‌السلام، تهران، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)
2 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم پایه، دانشگاه افسری امام علی (علیه‌السلام)، تهران، ایران
3 دکتری آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Climate change forecasting plays a significant role in environmental planning and risk assessment. Therefore, this study focused on forecasting future temperature and precipitation changes in Iran. For this purpose, data from temperature and precipitation of 60 synoptic stations with appropriate distribution across the country, as well as data from eight CMIP6 models under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) scenarios, were used, applying the Linear Scaling Bias Correction (LSBC) method. After evaluating the models using RMSE, MAE, and R2 metrics and selecting the optimal model, the temperature and precipitation changes for the future period (2031-2050) compared to the baseline period (1992-2022) were forecasted. The results showed that the LSBC method has the necessary capability to simulate temperature and precipitation changes in the studied region. Among the various CMIP6 models analyzed, the MPI-ESM1-2-LR and MRI-ESM2-0 models showed the best performance in simulating precipitation and temperature in the country, respectively. The results of the temperature and precipitation forecasting indicated that the temperature in the studied region will increase between 1.1 to 1.2 degrees Celsius, with the greatest changes occurring in the eastern, southern, and central regions of the country. The smallest changes were observed in the cold regions in the west and northwest. However, according to the results, precipitation in the studied region will decrease by 12 to 28 percent, with the greatest changes occurring in the eastern and central parts, and the least changes in the western and northwestern regions. Overall, the results indicate that precipitation will decrease by an average of 18.5% and temperature will increase by 1.4°C during the future period compared to the baseline.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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