نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار روابط بینالملل، گروه مطالعات جغرافیای ایران، بنیاد ایران شناسی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The 2015 nuclear agreement, prior to the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, was recognized—despite its criticisms—as a framework for resolving the challenges surrounding Iran's nuclear program. According to many Western officials, this agreement represented a significant step toward strengthening the non-proliferation regime. Iran also benefited from its relative advantages, as reflected in economic statistics. Although the agreement was short-lived, its impact on the security of the Persian Gulf region is evident and worth examining. However, the unilateral withdrawal of the Trump administration from the agreement once again reverted many conditions to the pre-agreement state. Now, with the inauguration of a Democratic administration under Biden and the U.S. effort to rejoin the nuclear agreement, the key question arises: “Which scenario for reviving the JCPOA will have the greatest impact on enhancing the security of the Persian Gulf region?” In response to this question, the following scenarios are identified: in the first scenario, negotiations ultimately fail to revive the JCPOA, resulting in regional security becoming more fragile than before or, at best, remaining in its current state. In the second scenario, the JCPOA is revived, but regional countries view this development as a threat; thus, although regional security improves significantly compared to the past, it remains subject to fluctuations. In the third scenario, the JCPOA is revived alongside a peaceful understanding among regional countries regarding this development. In this case, regional security improves noticeably, and the countries of the region move toward greater security and economic convergence.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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