Changes in the Religious Orientations of the Middle Class and Future Scenarios for the Political Capacity of the Islamic Revolution Discourse

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Political Science, Baft Branch, Islamic Azad University, Baft, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Baft Branch, Islamic Azad University, Baft, Iran

Abstract

As the principal carrier of sociocultural transformations, the middle class is considered a determining variable in the sustainability or erosion of the “political capacity” of the Islamic Revolution discourse. Aiming to explain this strategic challenge, the study addresses the key question of what scenarios transformations in this class’s patterns of religiosity may give rise to for the hegemonic capacity and symbolic capital of the political system in the future. This study analyzes the phenomenon using an integrated analytical framework grounded in futures studies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to examine deep discursive layers, and TAIDA strategic scenario planning to map possible futures, with the variables validated using MICMAC software. The central hypothesis of the study is that the middle class’s transition from institutional religiosity to individualistic and choice-oriented patterns has created a “legitimacy gap” between this class and the political structure and has weakened the mobilizing capacity of the official discourse. The findings, derived from an analysis of the interrelationships among the key drivers, indicate that the continuation of trends such as the “secularization of values” and the “decline of institutionalized religious authority,” in the absence of structural reforms and discursive reconfiguration, will expose the political system to high-risk scenarios such as the “erosion of social capital,” a “participation crisis,” and “political radicalism.” These results underscore the strategic imperative that sustaining the capacity of the Islamic Revolution discourse depends on “intelligent adaptation” to identity transformations and the redefinition of its functions within a plural social sphere.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Strategic Futures Studies
Volume 4, Issue 15 - Serial Number 15
September 2025
Pages 83-118

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History

  • Receive Date: 30 May 2025
  • Revise Date: 09 August 2025
  • Accept Date: 05 January 2028

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