A future-oriented analysis of the national identity of Iranian adolescents with an emphasis on religious and revolutionary identity using the method of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA).

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D Student in Cultural Policy, Faculty of Social and Cultural Sciences, Imam Hossein Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Faculty and Research Institute of the Hazrat WaliAsr, Imam Hossein Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran

3 Master’s Degree in Private Law, Islamic Azad University, Behshahr, Mazandaran, Iran

Abstract

National identity is continuously changing under the influence of various factors and, given its important role in national cohesion and consensus, has consistently attracted the attention of policymakers. The aim of this study is to identify the indicators of the national identity of Iranian adolescents, with emphasis on religious and revolutionary identity, using the futures-oriented Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) method and an exploratory approach, and to develop an overarching picture of Iranian adolescents’ national identity from the problem level to deeper levels. The present study is an applied study employing a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. Data were collected, coded, and categorized through the review of documents, records, and library sources, as well as interviews conducted through two expert panels. The results of the interviews and qualitative studies were presented, in the form of a researcher-developed questionnaire, to a population of 80 experts, academics, and teachers employed by the Ministry of Education. The collected data were analyzed using statistical methods and SPSS software. The findings identified 63 causal factors affecting the national identity of Iranian adolescents: 14 at the litany layer, 22 at the systemic causes layer, 20 at the discourse and worldview layer, and finally 7 at the myth/metaphor layer.

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Strategic Futures Studies
Volume 4, Issue 16
February 2026
Pages 67-92

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History

  • Receive Date: 05 June 2025
  • Revise Date: 28 September 2025
  • Accept Date: 18 November 2025

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