A Causal Layered Analysis of Donald Trump’s Policies toward the Islamic Republic of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D .Student in Futures Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Political Science, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Political Science, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

With rising international tensions, analyzing the policies of the Donald Trump administration toward Iran has become a central issue. Focusing on the analytical gap in previous studies, which have mainly addressed surface-level actions, this study seeks to provide a deeper analysis of the underlying layers of these policies by applying the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) framework. The study adopts a qualitative approach and employs the Causal Layered Analysis framework. Data on the Trump administration’s policy positions toward Iran were collected and coded through the direct examination of official documents and speeches, including Trump’s May 8, 2018 speech announcing the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and his January 8, 2020 statements concerning the prevention of Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and were subsequently analyzed across the different layers of this framework. The analysis indicates that Trump’s policies toward Iran can be explained at four levels: at the immediate-cause layer, through aggressive and sanctions-oriented actions; at the systemic-cause layer, through the decision to withdraw from the JCPOA and reimpose sanctions; at the discourse and worldview layer, on the basis of an anti-Iranian ideology; and at the mythic layer, as part of the narrative of the West’s confrontation with radical Islam. The findings confirm that a comprehensive explanation of Trump’s policies is possible only by moving beyond the surface level and simultaneously examining the deeper causal, discursive, and mythological layers. This comprehensive analysis provides a better understanding of the behavioral patterns and underlying causes of these policies and may also be useful for predicting future behavior.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Strategic Futures Studies
Volume 4, Issue 16
February 2026
Pages 7-34

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 28 April 2025
  • Revise Date: 28 July 2025
  • Accept Date: 02 October 2025

Share

How to cite

Statistics