Scenarios for the Negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States during Donald Trump's Second Presidential Term

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. in Strategic Defense Management, Defense Faculty, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran

2 PhD student in National Security, Faculty of National Security, National Defense University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The negotiations between Iran and the United States in the current geopolitical context of the region and the international system are influenced by multiple variables, including the structure of U.S. power, the economic needs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the security concerns of the Zionist regime, and the geo-economic interests of China. The outcomes and consequences of these negotiations are of great importance to the interests of regional and global actors. In the present study, using the scenario planning method based on the impact–uncertainty matrix, an attempt has been made to answer the main research question: "What scenarios lie ahead for the negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States?" The nature of this research is applied–developmental, and its approach is a mixed method with a descriptive–analytical methodology. Data were collected through both library and field methods (interviews and questionnaires). The qualitative data were analyzed using content analysis, and the quantitative data were analyzed using quantitative data analysis software. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed through content validity, and its reliability was calculated using Cronbach’s alpha. Ultimately, through environmental analysis and identification of active and influential actors, nine key variables were identified. By determining the degree of influence (impact) and level of uncertainty of each variable, four scenarios—Bitter Agreement, Strategic Compromise, Escalation of Crisis, and Time-Wasting Game—were extracted. Finally, the study presents the drivers, consequences, stakeholders, and strategic options available to the Islamic Republic of Iran.

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History

  • Receive Date: 16 April 2025
  • Revise Date: 03 June 2025
  • Accept Date: 20 July 2025

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