The Development of a Watching Model for the Changes in the Security Environment of the Islamic Republic Of Iran

Mirzaei, AhmadReza; Keshavarz Tork, Einollah; Ghasemi, Hakem; Eivazi, MOHAMMADRahim; Bayat, Rohollah

The Development of a Watching Model for the Changes in the Security Environment of the Islamic Republic Of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ PhD Graduate in Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran (corresponding author)

² Associate Professor in Futures Studies Department, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

³ Associate Professor in Political Sciences Department, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

⁴ Professor in Futures Studies Department, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The contemporary developments in the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the West Asia region, including changes in patterns of regional alliances and coalitions, the power projection of actors and regional power poles, the interactions of extra-regional powers, and alternative and sometimes conflicting views on the geopolitical order and structure of the region, all indicate an increased potential for strategic changes in the future of the region. These developments will inevitably impact the actors and political units in this regional system. Accordingly, in line with the principle of preventing strategic surprises and the need for early awareness of upcoming opportunities and threats, watching these developments and having an understanding of them becomes essential. The aim of this article is to design a model for watching the strategic developments in the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in West Asia and to structure and optimize the complex process of watching. This research, by examining futures studies models in various domains based on the method of meta-synthesis and aligning them with strategic indicators that underpin change in the West Asia region through the implementation of interpretive structural modeling, seeks to find an optimal model for scanning weak signals of change and monitoring ongoing developments in the region. Based on the results, the final model consists of three main sections: information collection, information analysis, and information dissemination. The first section examines information sources and monitoring indicators. The second section involves the use and application of futures studies tools, including trend research and processing. Finally, the third section is dedicated to early warning and strategic prescription.

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