Iran and the West Asia Region: Future Scenarios for the Oil Products Market

Karimipour, Davood; Rayeji, Sohrab

Iran and the West Asia Region: Future Scenarios for the Oil Products Market

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

davood karimipour ¹
sohrab Rayeji ²

¹ Assistant Professor in Department of International Relations, National Security Research Institute, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran

² PhD Student in Business Administration, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran (corresponding author)

Abstract

The West Asia region is considered the largest regional actor in the production and export of oil. The region's rich oil and gas resources have long made it a central pillar in balancing global markets. This importance has led to the crude oil and petroleum products markets in this region always holding significant value. In this context, given that the export of petroleum products is a key component of Iran's economy, efforts have been made to analyze market scenarios for these products in the coming years. In this study, using Schwartz's scenario development model, the actors of future scenarios for the petroleum products market of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been identified. The first scenario suggests that with the approval of the JCPOA, control of the COVID-19 pandemic, and peace between Russia and Ukraine, the Islamic Republic's petroleum products market will experience prosperity and growth. If this scenario unfolds, relevant officials and policymakers should make the most of the opportunity through proper decisions and consultations with experts in the field. The second scenario represents the opposite of the first, where a catastrophe will occur, and the Islamic Republic's petroleum products market will decline, with regional actors replacing it. The third scenario is a middle ground between the first two and can be seen as depicting the current situation. Due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the market has been dominated by Russia’s unlimited discounts on petroleum products, leading to a reduction in the Islamic Republic's petroleum product exports.

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