Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Higher National Defense University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
This research uses Schwartz's scenario writing model to identify the actors of the future scenarios of the oil products market of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In the first approach, with the approval of JCPOA and the control of Corona and peace between Russia and Ukraine, the market of oil products of the Islamic Republic will enjoy prosperity and prosperity. Of course, if this scenario occurs, the relevant officials and politicians should make the most of the upcoming opportunity by making the right decisions and policies and consulting the elites of this field. The second approach can be seen as the complete opposite of the first approach. In such a way that a disaster will occur and the oil products market of the Islamic Republic will be destroyed and regional actors will replace it. The third approach is a middle state of the above two approaches, which can be said to draw the current situation in a way. Due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the regional market has been seized by this country due to Russia's unlimited discounts on oil products, which causes a decrease in the export of oil products of the Islamic Republic.
