Foresight of Countering Influence from the Perspective of His Eminence Imam Khamenei Based on the Five-Stage Model of Schultz

Kiani, Farshad; Kazemian, Masoud

Foresight of Countering Influence from the Perspective of His Eminence Imam Khamenei Based on the Five-Stage Model of Schultz

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Farshad Kiani ¹
Masoud Kazemian ²

¹ . PhD Student in Futures Studies, Faculty of Strategic Management, Supereme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran (corresponding author)

² PhD Student in Political Sciences, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran

Abstract

Influence is a low-cost method for achieving objectives that, when designed with planning and within predefined scenarios, can be effective while having minimal or no cost. Understanding the phenomenon of influence and its role in the subversion and collapse of revolutions and movements is one of the most important factors and strategies for maintaining the achievements of revolutions and protecting them. This article aims to plan and take action to counter influence in the Islamic Republic of Iran through foresight based on the thoughts and ideas of His Eminence Imam Khamenei. This research is applied in its goal, uses library-based data collection methods, and is qualitative in terms of data type. The research is survey-based and uses a grounded theory approach for data gathering and analysis. The article attempts to discuss the concepts of foresight and influence, while using the five-stage conceptual model of "Schultz" to examine the views of His Eminence the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran on countering influence. The findings show that His Eminence Imam Khamenei emphasizes the accurate identification of internal and external threats and the comprehensive analysis of the impacts of enemy influence. Developing various scenarios to counter these threats, assessing, drafting, and implementing them is part of his strategic approach. This research, by aligning Imam Khamenei's views with the "Schultz" model, demonstrates that he employs a comprehensive and organized approach to counter enemy influence.

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