The Future of the Sadrist Movement in Iraq's 2030 Political Horizon

Movahedi, Samaneh; Hadj Zargarbashi, Seyyed Rouhollah

The Future of the Sadrist Movement in Iraq's 2030 Political Horizon

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ PHD Student in International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran (corresponding author)

² Assistant Professor in International Relations Department, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Shi’ism in Iraq is one of the key institutions of power, deeply rooted in the country’s culture. Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most influential clerics, has played a significant role in the nation’s politics in recent years; however, the fluidity of Iraq's political landscape and the unpredictable nature of Muqtada al-Sadr's personality make forecasting his political behavior and decisions highly challenging. This study, conducted with a Futures Studies approach, aims to explore the future of the Sadrist Movement in Iraq's 2030 political horizon. According to the research findings, the Sadrist Movement possesses substantial capability for public mobilization and bringing people into the streets, but it lacks specialized expertise in governance. Consequently, it is likely that the movement will strive, on one hand, to attain religious leadership in Iraq and sideline its traditional rivals, and, on the other hand, to influence Iraq’s political future by forming coalitions with forces aligned with some of its policies.

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