Evaluating the performance of CMIP6 models and predicting temperature and precipitation changes under common socio-economic trajectory (SSP) scenarios in Iran.

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Climatology Group, Department of Geography, Imam Ali Military University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Imam Ali Military University, Tehran, Iran

3 Graduated with a Ph.D. in Hydrology and Meteorology, Tarbiat Modares University.

Abstract

this purpose, the temperature and precipitation data of 60 synoptic stations with appropriate distribution in the country as well as the data of 8 CMIP6 models under three common socio-economic trajectory scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) with application Linear Scaling Skew Correction (LSBC) method was used and after evaluating the models using RMSE, MAE and R2 metrics and choosing the optimal model to predict temperature and precipitation changes in the future period (2031-2050) The basic period (1992-2022) was addressed. The results showed that the LSBC method has the ability to simulate temperature and precipitation changes in the study area. Based on the results, among the different CMIP6 models examined, the MPI-ESM1-2-LR and MRI-ESM2-0 models respectively have the best performance in the field of rainfall and temperature simulation in the country. The results of forecasting changes in temperature and precipitation also showed that the temperature will increase between 1.1 and 1.2 degrees Celsius in the studied area, and the biggest changes are related to the eastern, then southern and central regions of the country. The least changes are related to colder areas in the west and northwest of the country. However, according to the results, the amount of precipitation in the study area will decrease between 12 and 28 percent, and the largest changes are related to the eastern and central regions of the country, and the smallest changes are related to the western and northwestern regions of the country.

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History

  • Receive Date: 25 April 2024
  • Revise Date: 11 August 2024
  • Accept Date: 25 August 2024

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