Designing a Trend Research Process to Outline the Outlook for West Asia by 1414 (2035)

Ahmadian, Mahdi; Ghasemi, Mohammad Hadi

Designing a Trend Research Process to Outline the Outlook for West Asia by 1414 (2035)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Assistant Professor in the Futures Studies Department, Faculty of Strategic Management, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran

² Ph.D. Graduate in Futures Studies, Faculty of Strategic Management, Supreme National Defense University and Strategic Research, Tehran, Iran (corresponding author)

Abstract

The West Asia region is a strategic area that has frequently been subject to external interference or provocations by certain regional countries against one another in recent years. Given the region's significance from various perspectives and its influence on numerous political, security, economic, religious, and ethnic developments both regionally and beyond, projecting the future outlook of West Asia based on past and emerging trends is one of the key objectives of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is essential to understand the potential future changes in the region's status, political and security systems, and the conditions of stability and instability, thereby preventing strategic surprises. It is also crucial to ensure that Iran remains an effective actor in regional changes and developments, maintaining its stability and security. Trend research, on the other hand, is a scientific method for studying the future. By examining factors and trends influencing the future, this approach can provide a picture of the potential future of a subject or region. Thus, the primary research question is how to design a process using trend research to enable the projection of West Asia's outlook. This would allow defense, security, and foreign policy leaders to avoid surprises and plan effectively and efficiently for addressing the region's future developments. This research examines approximately 500 trends and ultimately proposes a framework for projecting the outlook of West Asia based on a trend research process.

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