Future Scenarios for Smart Cities in Iran: A 2040 Horizon

Ghasemi, Mohammad Hadi; Zarei, Zeynab

Future Scenarios for Smart Cities in Iran: A 2040 Horizon

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Ph.D. in Student of Futures Studies, Faculty of Strategic Management, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran (corresponding author)

² Master in Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Tolo Mehr University, Qom, Iran

Abstract

The rapid growth of communication and information technologies, along with the changing lifestyle of urban residents increasingly engaged in virtual spaces, and the significant rise in urbanization and migration trends have intensified population density in cities. This has highlighted the necessity of managing and delivering urban services through information technology tools more than ever before. In this context, some countries, through policymaking and planning, have tied the development of cities and the digitization of urban services to conducting specific research studies. These studies have resulted in projects now referred to as smart city initiatives. The aim of this study is to map the future landscape of cities for policymakers and planners, equipping them to address the uncertainties they will face. Adopting a strategic approach, the research identifies the actors and drivers associated with the creation and development of smart cities in Iran, ultimately outlining the future of these cities in the 1420 (2040) horizon. This qualitative research involved 19 experts participating in expert panels, employing Peter Schwartz's scenario-planning method to develop four plausible scenarios. Finally, the study offers recommendations for achieving the most desirable scenario, aiming to facilitate the path toward the envisioned future.

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