Assistant Professor of International Relations, Department of Iranian Geography Studies, Iranology Foundation, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
The 2015 nuclear agreement was relatively effective despite all the criticisms and promises broken by the US government. According to the claim of most Westerners, this agreement was able to take an important step towards the non-proliferation order. Iran also benefited from its relative benefits. Although the life of this agreement was short, but its impact on the regional security of the Persian Gulf can be seen. Nevertheless, the departure of the Trump administration once again returned the conditions in many parameters to the time before the conclusion of the agreement. After the inauguration of a democratic government and the American effort to return to the agreement, these questions are raised: "What scenarios are there regarding the revival of the JCPOA, and what effect will each of these scenarios have on the security of the Persian Gulf region?" In response to this question, at least three scenarios can be counted. In the first scenario, the negotiations will not lead to the revival of the JCPOA, and therefore the regional security will be more unstable than before or it will be maintained in the same way. In the second scenario, the revival of JCPOA will be realized, but the countries of the region will have a threatening look. In this case, although regional security improves, it is still subject to fluctuations. In the third scenario, the revival of the JCPOA is accompanied by a peaceful understanding of the countries of the region. In this situation, the regional security is significantly improved.
