Futures Studies on the approaches of the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific strategic field and strategies for attainment the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 دانش آموخته ارشد روابط بین الملل دانشگاه گیلان

2 PhD in Future Research, University and Higher Research Institute of National Defense and Strategic Research

Abstract

In the present study, while analyzing the threats posed by the actions of the US & China in the Indo Pacific area, the future of the effects of competition on Iran's interests & analyzed using the scenario writing method. the leading research is based on the obtained results, of an applied type, & considering that during it to answer the main question of the research, namely how the future threat of Sino-US approaches in the Indo Pacific region to Iran's interests, developed one of a variety of methods. The quality of the script, called GBN, is developmental. In addition, the present study is descriptive in nature & is descriptive of the current context of the conflict & the factors that shape the current & future threats of US - China relations. Attempts have also been made to extract key scenarios & drivers affecting the mentioned relationships through interviews with experts & focus groups, & according to the key uncertainties extracted from the distribution questionnaires among 25 scientific & diplomatic experts, four scenarios have been identified. : 1) Worst: Ensuring China's energy security; 2) The best: the occurrence of economic & trade war between China & the United States; 3) Continuation of current trends: no trade & economic war between China & the United States; 4) China's inability to ensure energy security, which in accordance with the scenarios & in detail, in addition to the indicators of the occurrence of scenarios, strategic recommendations, policies & strategies to manage each are presented.